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  >   Abstract Page 1

We suggest hereinwith a new scenario of climatic phenomena based on a new physical model for the Earth that should make climate and natural disaster forecasting more predictable, accurate, and long-term.

Long-Term Forecasting of Climate and Natural
Disasters Based On the Earths New Physical Model

           Suggested hereinwith is a new model of terrestrial heat sources based on thorough analysis of universally recognized experimental data on the physics of the Earth and its heat balance. The model features the Earth as a gradually cooling star with heat generation still going on within its core. This hypothesis looks into the wave processes in the Earths core which, owing to induction, markedly affect the heating of the upper layers of the Earth and, consequently, the climate and local environmental processes. Mindful of these new energy sources, the prevailing Earths heat balance models warrant drastic revision which, in its turn, would allow long-term forecasting of climatic shifts and local environmental disasters.
The new model has given rise to macroquantum laws for the Earth. Its outer core is clamed to be made up of a quasiplasma substance with ultra-high density atomic hydrogen as the basic component. The potential energy released in the compression of this substance turns into the kinetic energy of the Earths rotation, the kinetic energy of the Moons rotation round the Earth, the ocean water movement, and into the thermal energy responsible for the heating of the mantle. The Earths climate is determined, along with the solar light energy, by the wave movement in the Earths outer core. Through induction interaction, these waves transfer the energy to the mantle, the crust, the oceans, and the atmosphere.


  >   Introduction Page 2


           The Earth as a planet is approximately 4.5 billion years old. How life came about and how it originally developed is anybodys guess. What is certain is that the oldest traces of it were discovered in archeus rocks aged between 2.6 to 3.5 billion years, in the way of bacteria fragments and blue and green algae. Also known for sure is that life on the Earth has been a continuous process for 3.5 billion years. It follows that the solar light intensity has undergone no significant change during this period [1].

It has been recently discovered that 800 million years ago the temperature on the Earths poles was higher than that at the equator, and Antarctic could boast vast tropical forests. It has been further established that Antarctic could not have drifted from the equator to the South Pole within so short a time [2]. In addition, as seen from the glacier period cycles and the texture of the permafrost in the northern and southern hemispheres, the Suns activity has nothing to do with these dramatic processes. A legitimate question arises therefore: why has the climate been changing so drastically given the unchanged solar behavior and the position of the Earths axis against the surface of the ecliptics? Great strides have certainly been taken in recent years to develop the numerical climatic models with due consideration of all the components of the atmosphere-hydrosphere-kryosphere-biosphere climatic system. Yet the brain-racking complexity of these models and a great variety of the schemes that they use featuring the empirical parametrization of different processes makes it extremely hard to meaningfully evaluate their adequacy from the point of view of climatic forecasting. Whats been achieved so far is a fairly schematic and treacherous compatibility of the numerical modeling effort with actual climatic manifestations [3]. Add to that the virtual inability of numerous supercomputer gurus to calculate long-term weather fluctuations, to say nothing of such big things as glacier periods or global warmings. One conclusion is obvious therefore: it is not the powerful computers but the wrong modeling presumptions that are to blame. It takes a dramatically different look on how the Earth is structured to adequately address the looming challenges.


  >   The Earths Macroquantum Laws   Page 3

The Earths Macroquantum Laws

The Earth is known to be made up of an inner core; an outer core; a mantle; and a solid core, or crust. The inner core has a radius (1) of 1217.1 km. It probably consists of a gaseous substance resistant to cross-cut seismic (acoustic) waves. Its gas pressure is 3.6324 · 102 GP. The outer core has a radius 2 of 3485.7 km. It is made up of a liquid substance with a temperature evaluated at 6200K and a density level of 13.012 g/cm3 [4]. Located farther on is a liquefied mantle with a radius 3 of 6031 km covered with a thin solid crust with a 4 of 340 km.

Fig.1 The Earths inner structure 

Lets suppose that the Earths outer core, just like the Suns [5], is nothing but quasiplasma governed by the macroquantum electromagnetic laws. Then there may be waves along its surface moving at a speed of:
1 =                                         (1)
          Where is a thin structure constant and c is the speed of light.
This waves kinetic energy will correspond to a temperature of :
          where k is the Bolzman constant, and me is the electron mass.
This temperature (2) corresponds to the one in the Earths center [1] and matches the coloring temperature in the middle of the Suns disk [4].


  >   The Earths Macroquantum Laws   (continuation) Page 4

Fig.2. The Earths Sun-Like Core 

The wave (1) has a round-the-core rotation period of:
= 17.523 sec.                       (3)
The wave (1) shaped as a spectral peak is easily registered by all ocean seismic stations in the Pc3 (10-45sec.) range. Land-based stations, in addition, can detect a second peak with a period of 8.7sec. in the Pc2 (2-10sec.) range [6]. These peaks previously defied any theoretical reasoning, although the aggregate wave power within these ranges is dozens of times as great as that of all the Earths seismic waves.

Fig.3. The Earths Acoustic Noise 

One should keep in mind that the Earths electromagnetic field [7] oscillates in the immediate Pc3 frequency range. In other words, the energy of a wave moving in the Earths outer core should have an impact on both the crust and the ionosphere and affect the Earths climate dramatically. This influence can be traced to the ocean behavior.


  >   The Earths Macroquantum Laws   (continuation) Page 5

        It is generally known [8] that particles in the water, kept out of balance, will perform small oscillations next to the balance position on the Viaisial frequency fv, the oscillation frequency being determined by both water depth and salinity. Specifically, the fv maximum in the North Pacific is located at a level of 100 to 200 meters and equals to 0.02 Hz, while the one on the equator, 100-200 meters deep, is equal to 0.06 Hz, already coinciding with the Pc3 seismic wave frequency of 0.057 Hz and the geomagnetic pulsing frequency. That proves, therefore, that the wave energy of the Earths core can, by way of resonance, directly affect the oceans upper layers, mostly in the area of the equator, forming sort of a thermal protective shield 100 to 200 meters deep that keeps out cold deep ocean waters with a temperature averaging 3,8° . The thermal impact of the sun rays is minuscule: the water gets warm within just a few dozen meters and never at a level of 100 to 200 meters where the oceans main thermal sources are located.

Fig.4. Ocean Deep-Water Temperature Distribution  

Some waves in the Earths outer core seem to be moving in different directions. This may trigger the induction flow of the ocean waters, the Gulf Stream being a good case in point. One can find, getting back to the Earths distant past, that the average ocean temperature was 23°  and the water level was 500 m higher than the prevailing one some 110 million years ago [9]. This couldnt have been accounted for by the fall of huge space objects as blast-motivated dust clouds dissipate within a few years. Nor could it have been the reason for the dinosaur extinction that were dying out in the course of millions of years. It is apparent, therefore, that the probable source of the Earths climatic changes could be either the long-term processes within the terrestrial core or the cosmic origin of the changes themselves. One knows for a fact, however, that the Suns light intensity has been unchanged within the last 3 billion years and couldnt possibly affect the Earths climate [9].
Let us get back to our model. Suppose that the movement of quasiplasma along the Earths outer cores inner surface also triggers the movement of its electrostatic field [5]. In this case, the tips of the vectors of this field cannot move in the condensed environment (the mantle) faster than c. If so, then the tip of the radius-vector of such a field will be located at a distance of

= 6101.64 km.                   (4)

In other words, the radius-vector ends within 270 km from the Earths surface.


  >   The Earths Macroquantum Laws   (continuation) Page 6

Fig.5. The Earths Induction Radius-Vector  

This particular model of the Earths internal structure solves the paradox related to the heating pattern of the Earths mantle. It was originally thought that the heating occurred through mere diffusion of the heat coming from the terrestrial core which had remained there since the Earths formation. That idea had to be abandoned, however, because of the small mantle heat diffusion ratio. A new, convective, model presumed the heating of the mantle by way of heat local mixing. If true, those convective heat streams would have provoked continual major earthquakes which was not the case. Then followed a model of the mantle heated through radioactive decay of long-living U238, U235, Th232, K40 isotopes. That approach would have yeilded a mantle and core heating temperature three times as little as the prevailing one. In addition, that kind of heating would have triggered the Earths radioactive contamination through volcanic activity, which isnt the case either [10].
The model being suggested is focused on the heating through electromagnetic induction triggering the mantles thermal heating all across the board. This rules out diffusion, convection and surface radioactive contamination.
Moreover, a small hydrogen diffusion from the Earths outer core through the mantle provides an answer as to how the water on our planet was originated. The Earths hydrogen core model has been used before to account for water origins on the Earth. It didnt, however, consider the hydrogen core as a power source [11, p.90].
Considering the model suggested above, we might look into how the Earths bipole magnetic field is formed. Let us assume that an electron ring wave is moving along the outer cores inner surface in a specific direction at a speed of (1). A similar wave, different in power from the former one, is heading in the opposite direction. The axes of these two ring currents are not parallel. In this case, the aggregate magnetic field of these currents might be shifted against the Earths center. This shift, as current experiments testify, is 462 km. The bipole axis north pole and the south pole would also be shifted against the Earths axis. The Earths magnetic fields are known to be slowly drifting as far as to change their polarity. This may be accounted for by the movement of the ring currents along the outer cores inner surface.
The above approach provides general answers to the paradoxes related to the Earths magnetic field and identifies the true power source that creates it.
A paper [5] says that the kinetic anisotropic energy of the terrestrial outer cores gravitational compression is transformed into the energy of the electric currents movement in quasiplasma, into the Earths temperature, into the kinetic energy of the Earths rotation, etc. The anisotropic component of the gravitational compression in the outer cores shell is about 500 times as powerful as the regular gravitational compression. It is this anisotropy of the gravitational compression that is the main energy source in the Earths core. That amount of energy should be quite sufficient for hydrogen transmutation into heavier elements that form the mantle.


  >   The Earths Macroquantum Laws   (continuation) Page 7

Let us prove now that the quasiplasma waves inside the Earth provide energy to the oceans in the way of tides and ebbs.
It has been considered, since Newtons times, that tides and ebbs on the Earth are triggered by the Moon: the kinetic energy of the Moons rotation turns into the kinetic energy of the water movement on the Earth. If the above is true, then the Moon should be nearing the Earth [12]. Besides, according to Laplace, the Earth should have two wave water humps. It was found, however, that the humps were shifted 2.16° ahead against the Earth-Moon axis.

Fig.6. The Moons Lagging Movement  

It follows from the above that it is not the Moons kinetic energy but the kinetic energy of the Earth that impacts the Moon, so the Moon should become increasingly distant. Numerous meticulously accurate measuring experiments have shown, however, that the Moon is neither becoming closer nor drifting away from the Earth. Moreover, upon closer consideration, the phase patterns of the ocean tides behave very much like resonator waves discarding the Laplace tide theory as even the first approximation to describe the tide and ebb phenomenon [12].
This paradox can be happily resolved by assuming that the Moon is positioned against the Earth at a strictly determined macroquantum distance [5].
Let us suppose that along the outer cores inner surface, besides the fast wave mode (1), there is a slow wave mode moving at a rate of

3 =                                           (5)

This waves spreading period will be as follows:

= 26.103 days.               (6)
This period is 4.67 percent shorter than the actual sideric period (27.32166 days) of the Moons rotation round the Earth. The period matching can be achieved by assuming that the wave itself should spread a bit deeper than the Earths outer core surface. This wave should be bent toward the Earths equator surface in accordance with the Moons orbit.
A conclusion is evident, therefore, that the quasiplasma wave (5) induces, on the Earth surface, the movement of the ocean waves in the way of two humps (tides and ebbs) that move at a bit faster rate than the Moon itself.
One can assert, therefore, that the anisotropic compression gravitational energy of the Earths outer core also impacts our satellite, the Moon. It is destined to be our fellow-traveller until the Earth has cooled down. Only then will they become one.


  >   Conclusions   |   Final Statements Page 8


           The Earths new physical model provides enough room for the following:
  1. It has been revealed that the Earths outer core is made up of a solar substance. Its compression potential energy is transformed into the kinetic energy of the Earths rotation, the kinetic energy of the Moons rotation round the Earth, the kinetic energy of the ocean water movement, and the thermal energy of the mantles heating.

  2. It has been revealed that the Earths acoustic noise is originated by the movement of the quasiplasma waves in the Earths outer core.

  3. It has been revealed that the Earths mantle heating is triggered by the induction heating caused by the movement of the quasiplasma waves in the Earths outer core. The radius-vector of the plasma waves ends 270 km deep into the Earth which prevents the Earths crust surface from excessive overheating. This may have been the factor that was responsible for the inception and development of life on the Earth.

  4. It has been revealed that the two ring quasiplasma waves in the outer core may be the source of the Earths magnetic field. The movement of these electric currents along the outer cores inner shell gives rise to continual drifting of the magnetic fields axis as far as the total change of its North and South poles.

  5. It has been revealed that the long-term modes of the quasiplasma waves in the Earths outer core induce the movement of tides and ebbs in the ocean. They are also gravitationally connected with the Moon and its rotation round the Earth. This phenomenon provides the clue to the Moons lagging movement against the tidal waves. It is also highly possible that some quasiplasma currents in the core induce currents in the ocean.

  6. It has been revealed that the upper ocean water layers (100-200 m deep) are heated with the energy of the quasiplasma waves in the Earths inner core. This water layer provides thermal protection from the oceans deep waters and actually determines the Earths climate.
Final Statements

           So, macroquantum laws for the Earth have been found. It has been revealed that its outer core is made up of quasiplasma, a solar substance the compression potential energy of which turns into the kinetic energy of the Earths rotation, the kinetic energy of the Moons rotation round the Earth, the kinetic energy of the ocean water movement, and the thermal energy of the mantles heating.
The Earths climate is determined, along with the solar light energy, by the movement of the waves in the Earths outer core. These waves, by way of induction interaction, provide the energy to the mantle, the crust, the oceans, the atmosphere, and the ionosphere.
In other words, weather forecasting is possible only through mastering the techniques of measuring the Earth cores induction fields.
The swift, spasmodic movements of the waves inside the Earth may also trigger seismic changes in the way of deep-lying earthquakes that may cause the movement of the crust and destructive earthquakes on the Earths surface. It is, therefore, extremely vital to establish a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on the Earths macroquantum laws.


  >   Project suggestions   |   References Page 9

Project suggestions

Mankind is facing three global environmental challenges: a) climate change (global warming); b) the future of the ozone layer; c) the lock-up nature of the global biogeochemical circling (the concept of the environmental biotic regulation).
The Earths adequate physical models will be the only means to effectively determine the global climate changes and channel material resources for sustained development as well as to establish and substantiate mankinds further vital priorities.
We suggest using the above new approach entailing a thorough review of all available experimental data on the Earth seismic activity, the Earths ionosphere, the Earths electromagnetic and magnetic fields, the oceans temperature and salinity, the Earths thermal fields, etc.
We suggest developing new mathematical models for routine computer processing of the experimental data.
The first phase (18 months) presumes the development of geophysical information processing techniques and the creation of operative database cells.
The second phase (24 months) presumes the development of database info filtration and stockpiling techniques to address specific geophysics tasks. Another priority will be the development of tomographic methods of the Earths inner structure based on the Earths acoustic noise and superlong electromagnetic waves.
The third phase (24 months) will see the development of local and global climate change and natural disaster forecasting software. The whole methodology package will be tested and evaluated for accuracy.
The funding will amount to $ ______ mln. The cost estimates should include supercomputer procurement. Various national geophysical databases will be of great use.

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  5. .. . . 2. . 1999. N. 2-3. . 71-101; Ilyanok, A.M. Quantum astronomy II, Macroquantum laws in astronomy J. New Energy, USA, 6, No1, 55-79 (2001); http:/xxx.lanl.gov Ilyanok A. QUANTUM ASTRONOMY. PART 1 (astro-ph 99 12 537),QUANTUM ASTRONOMY. PART II (astro-ph 00 01 059).
  6. .. . .: , 1977. .96.
  7. Jacobs J.A. Geomaghetic micropulsations. Springer. Verlay, Berlin, 1970.
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  9. The Solar Output and its Variation Edited by Oran R White Colorado Ass. University Press Boulder. 1980.
  10. Jacobs J.A. The Earths Core. Academic Press Inc. London. 1975.
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  12. Altven H., Arrhenius G. Structure and Evolutionary History of the Solar System. Boston. US. 1975. Reidel Publishing Company.

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